Christmas / December Forecast 2008

Update: 7th November, 2008 [2105 UTC]

Seasonal Update: December / Christmas Outlook, 2008

Are you dreaming of a White Christmas ?

Analysis of the warm temperature anomaly in the Mid-Atlantic to the West of the United Kingdom was undertaken. The macro-physical behaviour of this Ocean anomaly has been compared and contrasted to the UK climatology archive, by a weighted pattern match-up. This analysis is suggestive of a 65% probability of a BELOW AVERAGE December, with a strong tendency towards Arctic maritime airstream near the middle part of December. The Summer / Autumn follows the general trend of 1981, when an Arctic flow resulted in well below average temperatures during December. In 85% of cases the North-Westerly or Westerly domination resulting from the mid-Atlantic pattern persisted into late December for close significant comparison years, when the feature was prevalent during November. In general the warm anomaly propagated Westwards allowing colder and drier continental air to affect the SE of England, whilst Arctic Maritime air becomes a key feature.
Careful weighting of the significantly correlated years with Winter 2008 enables a prediction of temperature generally below average. The CET (Central England Temperature), is expected to be below average, and heavy wintry showers or snow is expected to dominate more northern and western counties.
December 2008 Anomaly: -0.3 +/- 1.0'C [CET: 4.0'C +/- 1.0'C]