"Switch" to North-westerly Flow noticeable from October 2007

A gradual shifting of the prevailing wind between October 2007 to present was noticeable in the North-West Atlantic close to the United Kingdom, which contributed to the wet and cool Summer of 2008 due to a strong (unstable) polar maritime flow. OnlineWeather.org.uk hedged bets that this "cut-off" to the usual tropical maritime flow into the UK, would produce below average temperature for northern-Europe during Winter 2008. The circulation effects are consistent with a warm temperature anomaly in the North Atlantic, but also indicate a longer-term shift in the climate system, which could result in a partial recovery or ease of Arctic ice melt. There is a strong signal that a warm temperature anomaly in the mid-Atlantic may have been present in 1981, when a long period of Arctic air resulted temperatures "well-below average" during December, and caused a "cool and wet summer", though reliable ocean data on a local scale is scarce during this period making this observation "inconclusive".

A significant weakening of the Gulf Stream flow would induce identical effects, and hence the Meriodional Overturning Circulation (MOC) plays a key role in dictating Global temperatures. Northern hemisphere ice cover during Winter and Spring, combined with high latitude ice coverage is consists a large negative feedback if MOC weakening is coincident with a warmer world. This Ocean-atmosphere coupling is essential in prediction of future climate change. There is evidence that the MOC has fluctuated in intensity naturally, though it is likely that the weakening seen is of a result of unprecedented ice-melt at the poles, well above the IPCC predictions. The MOC weakening is consistent with a global temperature leveling off during the early 21st century, when temperatures were otherwise (all thing equal) expected to accelerate in line with high levels of anthropogenic emissions.

Christmas / December Forecast 2008

Update: 7th November, 2008 [2105 UTC]

Seasonal Update: December / Christmas Outlook, 2008

Are you dreaming of a White Christmas ?

Analysis of the warm temperature anomaly in the Mid-Atlantic to the West of the United Kingdom was undertaken. The macro-physical behaviour of this Ocean anomaly has been compared and contrasted to the UK climatology archive, by a weighted pattern match-up. This analysis is suggestive of a 65% probability of a BELOW AVERAGE December, with a strong tendency towards Arctic maritime airstream near the middle part of December. The Summer / Autumn follows the general trend of 1981, when an Arctic flow resulted in well below average temperatures during December. In 85% of cases the North-Westerly or Westerly domination resulting from the mid-Atlantic pattern persisted into late December for close significant comparison years, when the feature was prevalent during November. In general the warm anomaly propagated Westwards allowing colder and drier continental air to affect the SE of England, whilst Arctic Maritime air becomes a key feature.
Careful weighting of the significantly correlated years with Winter 2008 enables a prediction of temperature generally below average. The CET (Central England Temperature), is expected to be below average, and heavy wintry showers or snow is expected to dominate more northern and western counties.
December 2008 Anomaly: -0.3 +/- 1.0'C [CET: 4.0'C +/- 1.0'C]

Subconsious Weather Forecasting

3) Subconscious is smarter than you.

Subconscious is smarter than you. In other words, it is more powerful. In a recent study, a square was attributed to a location on a computer screen through a complex pattern. After watching it out, people began to get results better than the chance of recognizing where the square would crop up next. However, when they were inquired to consciously find out the pattern, even given a few hours, nobody really did it!