Mild UK Weather set for the next 8 days:
[remember that the temperature is variable. On a Sunny day in October the temperature around London can range by up to 6'C within a 50km range. Some of this is due to the Urban Heat Island effect, but most of which results from patchy low cloud or fog. On the 8th of October London's outskirts reached 15'C, whilst parts reached 22'C. I used a representative London value, and will keep to the same one throughout. The GFS provides a smoothed mean of the temperatures, averaged over a 6 hour time window, and does not consider the urban heat island, so days with a high dynamic range in temperature, max T is underestimated and min T is overestimated. The mean temperature should remain unaltered if the chosen locations are sufficiently far from Urbanized sprawling.]
The GFS forecast interpretation was made independently, without access to a TV weather forecast or BBC sources.
My forecast from Global Forecast (GFS) 8 day forecast outputs:
Date: --------------- London: --------------- Edinburgh:
Tue 7th, Oct--------------- 15'C/13'C Rain --------------- 13'C/10'C Rain
Wed 8th, Oct --------------- 15'C/9'C partly cloudy--------------- 12'C/8'C Rain
Thu 9th, Oct --------------- 15'C/15'C Cloudy --------------- 12'C/12'C Rain pm
Fri 10th, Oct --------------- 17'C/10'C Sunny--------------- 15'C/12'C Rain pm
Sat 11th, Oct --------------- 18'C/15'C partly cloudy--------------- 13'C/10'C Rain
Sun 12th, Oct --------------- 18'C/13'C rain --------------- 13'C/8'C showers
Mon 13th, Oct --------------- 18'C/15'C partly cloudy --------------- 10'C/12'C Heavy rain pm
Tue 14th, Oct --------------- 15'C rain --------------- 12'C rain
Mean temperature --------------- [16.375'C/12.857'C] --------------- [12.500'C/10.287'C]
Temperature anomalies--------------- [+1.275/+5.407] --------------- [+0.100'C/+4.337'C]
Mean anomaly--------------- [+3.341 +/- 0.5'C] --------------- [+2.2185'C +/- 0.5'C]
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BBC 5 day forecast
Tue 7th, Oct --------------- 17/9 Rain --------------- 14/8 Rain
Wed 8th, Oct--------------- 17/5 Partly cloudy --------------- 14/7 Partly Cloudy
Thu 9th, Oct--------------- 17/10 Sunny --------------- 15/12 Cloudy
Fri 10th, Oct --------------- 19/10 Sunny --------------- 16/8 Rain
Sat 11th, Oct --------------- 17/10 Partly cloudy --------------- 13/8 Sunny
Mean temperature--------------- [17.4'C/8.8'C] --------------- [14.4'C/8.6'C]
Temperature anomalies--------------- [+2.300/+1.350] --------------- [+2.000'C/+2.650'C]
Mean anomaly--------------- [+1.825 +/- 0.5'C] --------------- [+2.325'C +/- 0.5'C]
Observations:
An atmospheric block near the UK ended explosive during the beginning of the period, causing an "explosive" surge of tropical maritime moist air driving into the UK. The following was observed ...
(1) Strong subsidence occurs either side of the SW'ly jet of moisture, causing cooler dryer bands and low level cloudiness which acts as a negative feedback. In some cases this "significantly reduced" the expected rainfall in both the BBC and GFS forecasts. The GFS poorly resolves boundary layer issues, and secondary convective processes associated with a highly confined stream of moisture.
(2) Possibility of "Fog" dragging down temperatures in the SE of England by Monday. [Prediction of 5:1 made for Fog causing disruption to Heathrow air travel, made on Wednesday 8th].
(3) It is likely that the urban heat island "pushed" up the average temperature in London by up to +0.5'C
Probability Estimates; Observations are shown in the boxes:
[remember that the temperature is variable. On a Sunny day in October the temperature around London can range by up to 6'C within a 50km range. Some of this is due to the Urban Heat Island effect, but most of which results from patchy low cloud or fog. On the 8th of October London's outskirts reached 15'C, whilst parts reached 22'C. I used a representative London value, and will keep to the same one throughout. The GFS provides a smoothed mean of the temperatures, averaged over a 6 hour time window, and does not consider the urban heat island, so days with a high dynamic range in temperature, max T is underestimated and min T is overestimated. The mean temperature should remain unaltered if the chosen locations are sufficiently far from Urbanized sprawling.]
The GFS forecast interpretation was made independently, without access to a TV weather forecast or BBC sources.
My forecast from Global Forecast (GFS) 8 day forecast outputs:
Date: --------------- London: --------------- Edinburgh:
Tue 7th, Oct--------------- 15'C/13'C Rain --------------- 13'C/10'C Rain
Wed 8th, Oct --------------- 15'C/9'C partly cloudy--------------- 12'C/8'C Rain
Thu 9th, Oct --------------- 15'C/15'C Cloudy --------------- 12'C/12'C Rain pm
Fri 10th, Oct --------------- 17'C/10'C Sunny--------------- 15'C/12'C Rain pm
Sat 11th, Oct --------------- 18'C/15'C partly cloudy--------------- 13'C/10'C Rain
Sun 12th, Oct --------------- 18'C/13'C rain --------------- 13'C/8'C showers
Mon 13th, Oct --------------- 18'C/15'C partly cloudy --------------- 10'C/12'C Heavy rain pm
Tue 14th, Oct --------------- 15'C rain --------------- 12'C rain
Mean temperature --------------- [16.375'C/12.857'C] --------------- [12.500'C/10.287'C]
Temperature anomalies--------------- [+1.275/+5.407] --------------- [+0.100'C/+4.337'C]
Mean anomaly--------------- [+3.341 +/- 0.5'C] --------------- [+2.2185'C +/- 0.5'C]
----------------------
BBC 5 day forecast
Tue 7th, Oct --------------- 17/9 Rain --------------- 14/8 Rain
Wed 8th, Oct--------------- 17/5 Partly cloudy --------------- 14/7 Partly Cloudy
Thu 9th, Oct--------------- 17/10 Sunny --------------- 15/12 Cloudy
Fri 10th, Oct --------------- 19/10 Sunny --------------- 16/8 Rain
Sat 11th, Oct --------------- 17/10 Partly cloudy --------------- 13/8 Sunny
Mean temperature---------------
Temperature anomalies--------------- [+2.300/+1.350] --------------- [+2.000'C/+2.650'C]
Mean anomaly--------------- [+1.825 +/- 0.5'C] --------------- [+2.325'C +/- 0.5'C]
Observations:
An atmospheric block near the UK ended explosive during the beginning of the period, causing an "explosive" surge of tropical maritime moist air driving into the UK. The following was observed ...
(1) Strong subsidence occurs either side of the SW'ly jet of moisture, causing cooler dryer bands and low level cloudiness which acts as a negative feedback. In some cases this "significantly reduced" the expected rainfall in both the BBC and GFS forecasts. The GFS poorly resolves boundary layer issues, and secondary convective processes associated with a highly confined stream of moisture.
(2) Possibility of "Fog" dragging down temperatures in the SE of England by Monday. [Prediction of 5:1 made for Fog causing disruption to Heathrow air travel, made on Wednesday 8th].
(3) It is likely that the urban heat island "pushed" up the average temperature in London by up to +0.5'C
Probability Estimates; Observations are shown in the boxes:
Place your bets wisely [66% of the probability lies in the range 1.5'C to +4.5'C]
There is enough water vapour in the atmosphere this week, to produce a doubling-effect of carbon-dioxide. How will this influence the UK weather. Perhaps we might see a negative feedback take place?
There is enough water vapour in the atmosphere this week, to produce a doubling-effect of carbon-dioxide. How will this influence the UK weather. Perhaps we might see a negative feedback take place?
Truth (Tues 7th Oct, 2008) London [Greenich - London]: 18/8 rain Edinburgh [EGPH - Edinburgh Airport]: 16/11 rain Truth (Wed 8th Oct, 2008) London [Greenich - London]: 18/6 Sun Edinburgh [EGPH - Edinburgh Airport]: 15/8 Partly cloudy Truth (Thurs 9th Oct, 2008) London [Greenich - London]: 19/11 Sun Edinburgh [EGPH - Edinburgh Airport]: 15/4 Rain pm (;, but mostly cloudy Truth (Fri 10th Oct, 2008) London [Greenich - London]: 18/8 Sun Edinburgh [EGPH - Edinburgh Airport]: 17/11 Rain Truth (Sat 11th Oct, 2008) London [Greenich - London]: 20/9 Sunny Edinburgh [EGPH - Edinburgh Airport]: 12/2 Sunny Mean Temperatures London 18.6/8.4 [+3.025/+0.95] Mean anomaly = +2.4875'C Edinburgh 15.0/7.2 [+2.60/+1.25] Mean anomaly = +1.925'C | |
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